The meeting
of the heads of Russia, Turkey and Iran dedicated to the Syrian settlement was held in the
Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi on February 14, 2019. Vladimir Putin, Hassan
Rouhani and Recep Erdogan discussed possible ways of the political resolution
of the Syrian crisis, joint steps that would help to calm the situation in
Syria and seriously advance the peace process by showing respect for
international law and the agreements undertaken by the parties concerned.
The leaders of Iran, Russia, and Turkey in Sochi on
February 14, 2019
Speaking of
the peaceful settlement in Idlib, the sides have agreed to continue working on
the implementation of the Sochi summit. The certain adjustments on transferring Idlib’s
largest part under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (former Al-Qaida terrorists or HTS)
control would be made. As of yet, it is not clear whether the hostilities
against terrorists would open. The detailed answer could be given only after
having analyzed the Turkish activity on implementing all the points of the
Memorandum on Stabilization of the Situation in Idlib as well as after having
studied the development of the situation since the document had been signed.
Details of the Memorandum
The
Memorandum on Stabilization of the Situation in Idlib was signed in
mid-September 2018. The document lists a ten-point plan to avoid an offensive
in the northwestern Syrian province. Aside from the demilitarized zone, which
would go “15-20 km deep in the de-escalation area”, the document grants the
Iranian-Russian-Turkish coordination centre a role in implementing the
ceasefires. That also said that Russia is responsible for outside security
environment. And, Turkey is liable to take the security measures inside the
zone.
The map of Idlib demilitarization zone
According to
the second point, Russia will take all the necessary measures to ensure that
military operations and attacks on Idlib will be avoided and the existing
status quo will be maintained. Also, Turkey has taken some adjustments.
Some points of the Memorandum published by the
National
The main
complaint to Turkey is linked to points 5, 6, 8 and 9 of the Memorandum. The
effective measures on ensuring ceasefire by Ankara have not been taken yet.
Besides, Erdogan’s determination on fighting terrorists in Syria has not also
been recorded. What is going on in Idlib with the direct complicity of Turkey?
Map Changing
Not only
inaction but also silent endorsement of Turkey allows the radicals to seize
power in the province.
The picture
below clearly demonstrates HTS and the affiliated groups including Jaysh
al-Izza control over the frontlines in Northern Hama, Western Aleppo, and
Southern Idlib.
Map changings in Idlib since Memorandum has been signed
HTS
militants officially rejected the terms
of the Sochi agreement. The fulfilling of the deal by Erdogan is even less
likely under the current circumstances.
In this
regard, the statement of the
Turkish Foreign Minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, regarding the HTS attacks in Idlib
looks quite ridiculous. “Radical groups are attacking the Syrian opposition,
and we have taken necessary measures to halt these attacks”. On the one hand,
this statement looks genuinely, but on the other hand, the Minister exaggerated
the measures taken by Ankara, especially if we look at the map.
Cavusoglu
rushed to improve the situation but did nothing better than blamed Assad for a
redeployment of militants across the country to Idlib. It’s very amusing to
hear that now when HTS has established control over the whole province. Why was
everything all right for Ankara earlier when the terrorists flooded the region?
Has the process of establishing Islamic control over
Idlib passed on silent approval of Turkey?
The defeat of Nour
al-Din al-Zenki, Ahrah al-Sham concessions, dissolution of Free
Idlib Police (the branch of Al-Qaida in Syria) played a crucial role in
changing the balance of power.
Jaysh
al-Ahrar acknowledged the power of Salvation Government controlled by HTS. Its
leaders agreed on handing
over its territories along the Syrian-Turkish border as well as strongholds and
checkpoints to HTS.
Besides, in
early January, HTS successfully captured National Liberation Front positions
and turned over control of them to the Salvation Government. It was done following
the peace agreement signed between the
sides. After that, all the health facilities in Idlib stopped operating due to
the suspension of supplies by the EU and international organizations. So, the
situation in the province has turned into a
humanitarian catastrophe.
Moreover,
HTS reached an agreement on redeployment of 1,700 Jabhat al-Wataniya lil-Tahrir
militants from Al-Gab to Afrin.
Talks on Jabhat al-Wataniya lil-Tahrir militants’ redeployment
The other
illegal armed groups concluded, without any resistance, an agreement with
Al-Nusra on territorial transfer to the Salvation Government (linked to HTS),
and the remnants of the moderate opposition joined the ranks of the terrorists.
Thus, the atmosphere in the region became tenser. All the efforts to sort out the
moderate opposition have failed.
By the way,
the lack of Turkey’s and its pawns’ counteracting demonstrates the direct
involvement of the Turkish special services in strengthening HTS in
Idlib. Moreover, that is evidenced by the statement of HTS leader Abu Mohammad
al-Julani, who has declared the support for the Turkish plan against Kurds in
the northeastern Syria.
HTS “disciplines” Idlib
According to
the representatives of other groups, a large number of former Free Syrian
Policemen is unemployed, and now there is no one left to fight
against corruption, robberies, assassinations and lootings (these indicators
are slightly higher in Idlib than in other parts of Syria). And now, Idlib
would be patrolled by “Islamic Police”, consisting of militant groups belonging
to HTS instead of “Free Syrian police”.
Hiding
behind the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS) the
new authorities activity results in illegal arrests, prompt investigations,
mass executions, murders of activists,
kidnappings, terrorist attacks and indiscriminate shooting on the streets.
First of all, it should be classified as dispatching of rivals, as well as
establishing a single rule of the jihadists instead of securing the locals.
The
residents gradually turned into al-Julani hostages. The radical elements
managed not only to get inside and a foothold in the Syrian revolutionary
movement, but also to lead it.
A car bomb blast at HTS’ checkpoint in Idlib
Maybe, that
is why the leaked voice recording of a conversation between HTS militants,
discussing rich man from Saraqib’ abduction
is no longer surprising. During the incident, a woman was killed, and a child
was severely wounded. HTS commander involved in the kidnapping, Abu Ahmad,
offered to shift the responsibility for the woman killed onto an Idlib ISIS
cell through the controlled propaganda media.
HTS militants executed 12 people responsible for a terrorist attack and
allegedly linked to ISIS
The people
of Idlib reasonably express fears for their own lives and lives of their loved
ones as the cases of abduction have become more regular. That’s why the locals
try to resist to the radicals.
Female suicide bomber destroyed the Salvation Government PM’s office
Is the arms trade in line with the Memorandum?
Apart from
repressions, HTS initiated the arms trade in the
province. Underground gun shops offer rifles at a special price of $600 apiece.
Anyone can easily buy a sniper rifle that looks like Romanian PSL DMR with a
scope.
Rifles on the black market of Idlib
One can even
purchase a suicide vest that is quite valuable on the black market. The ad says
the vest contains 4 kilos of C4 explosives and old Soviet-made detonator.
Meanwhile, you can also buy a homemade Mosin rifle.
A suicide vest
All this
indicates that HTS influence zone has expanded much. It turns out that Turkey
violates the tenth point of the Memorandum obliging Ankara to combat terrorism
in Syria in all forms and manifestations.
Road-blocking and the eighth point of the Memorandum
Due to the
expansion of HTS influence zone, the eighth point of the Memorandum on the
restoration of traffic along the M4 (Aleppo-Latakia) and M5 (Aleppo-Hama)
highways is also not implemented.
Notably, in
late January, HTS radicals blocked traffic at Afrin-Idlib highway arguing that
they are afraid of ISIS infiltration in the province. And since January 29,
they have blocked all the
roads from rural Aleppo to Idlib.
The road closed by barriers
Now the
entry to Idlib is restricted, and each
driver has to pay a $100 fee. Currently, the control is carried out by HTS
militants.
M4 (Aleppo-Latakia) and M5 (Aleppo-Hama) routes controlled by HTS
The
situation is also critical with food supplies. The occupation of a highway
running to Bab al-Hawa border crossing by the radicals has resulted in higher
prices of goods. According to The Guardian, the locals are afraid of the lack
of money to buy food and to pay for fuel. This fact is especially critical when
there is a virtual absence of jobs and people can’t even receive the minimum
wage.
Under the
current circumstances, the EU Council’s appeal to ensure
unimpeded access of humanitarian aid to Idlib sounds more relevant than ever.
And Turkey as a guarantor state must provide this opportunity.
Therefore,
it can be stated that Erdogan failed to fulfill another point of the Sochi
agreements related to the opening of the two key transport routes. On the
contrary, the situation with communications in Idlib during the validity of the
Memorandum has deteriorated. The various armed entities that had controlled the
checkpoints were replaced by HTS jihadists who established their own rules.
For sure,
these circumstances provide the preconditions for claims to Erdogan from
Moscow, Tehran and Damascus.
Demilitarized zone issue
To remind,
the fifth and the sixth points of the Memorandum envisage the withdrawal of the
radical armed groups from the demilitarized zone till October, 15, 2018. Tanks,
artillery units, MLRS and mortars had to be withdrawn till October, 10, 2018.
Turkey has failed this issue too.
Hayat Tahrir
al-Sham militants are strengthening their positions. They are regularly
shelling the nearby settlements and building up their forces close to the
frontline.
The largest
part of Idlib demilitarization area is occupied by the terrorists. The local
activists report that around 70% of the territory is seized by radicals. HTS is
attacking the Syrian
Army positions and human settlements.
HTS
artillery fire is never interrupted in the al-Tah region, the southern Idlib.
Thus, Turkish forces seem to have deliberately violated the Memorandum by not
withdrawing the militants out of the province.
There have
also been fierce clashes between the jihadists and SAA units on the frontline
north-west to Aleppo. During the last one, the government forces succeeded to
repulse HTS attack west to Abu Douhur in Idlib.
Sources from
SAA say that the militants once used prohibited chemical weapon, which resulted
in the hospitalization of two
servicemen.
Will chemical weapon be used?
According to
the available information, the terrorists’ leaders are getting ready to carry
out chemical provocations on the eve
of an offensive operation. With the aid of European specialists arrived via
Turkey, the jihadists have set up chemical weapons depots at 30 towns near
Idlib de-escalation area.
It may be
indirectly confirmed by the fact that White Helmets are causing a stir around
Idlib. Civil defenders have intensified their activity in Idlib lately. They
have appeared in the town of Maarat al-Nouman right after
it has been captured by HTS, the
residents report. Moreover, several hospitals already host equipment the White
Helmets have prepared for staged shooting of a chemical attack allegedly
conducted by Damascus.
Operational coordination of Islamists
Under the
leadership of HTS, a joint command and control organization, the so-called
Military Council was created. This body is an operational headquarters with all
groups involved, including such former opposition forces as the 1st Coastal
Division, Jaysh al-Izza, Suqour al-Sham and a few others.
Combat training of Jaysh Abu Bakr al-Seddiq affiliated with HTS
Down to
Aleppo, Hama and Latakia, the terrorists are forming offensive groups, armed
with artillery and tanks. HTS is regularly recruiting mercenaries, training
them and guiding their operational coordination. The forced mobilization is
conducted among the youth aged 15 to 22. All this is happening in front of Turkish
soldiers’ eyes while they do absolutely nothing to prevent destabilization.
Thus, the whole idea of a demilitarization zone and diplomatic settlement of
the situation in Idlib has been compromised.
Besides, the
first Islamic private military contractor (PMC), called Malhama Tactical, has
intensified its activity, which foremost consists of training of jihadists from
different groups located on the HTS-held territory. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham itself
funds the training. Mercenaries are in charge of forming militants, from
machine gunners to snipers.
Islamic PMC Malhama Tactical
Allegedly one of the PMC chiefs
At the same
time, the Malhama Tactical leadership has been caught in crowdfunding through
social networks and in supporting jihadists. To get further on Malhama Tactical
activity, read the article at Foreign Policy.
And what is Turkey’s role?
It would be
nonsense to say that Ankara has no accurate information to implement the
agreements on Idlib for some groups remain under Turkey’s control.
Ankara is
still active in the northern part of Syria, where it conducts surveillance and
aerial survey by drones above the Idlib province.
Turkish drone
allegedly Bayraktar TB2
2/19/19
Turkish drone over Idlib province
1/22/19
Turkey has
its strategy on the situation in the de-escalation zone of Idlib hardly
complying with the Memorandum.
Former U.S.
Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter the Islamic
State Brett McGurk said, Ankara was supporting many
opposition groups and creating friendly conditions for them. He considered the
province of Idlib as a zone of Turkey’s influence where groups affiliated with
al-Qaida prevail. According to McGurk, all the guarding points on the border
are controlled by al-Qaida, which is a serious aggravating issue in the
settlement process in Idlib.
Is there a possibility of a military operation in
Idlib?
Turkey is
supposed to respect the Sochi agreement but it can’t due to the largest part of
Idlib being held by HTS. The scenario of bargaining, like it was in the case of
the Afrin deal, may be advantageous for Ankara. In exchange of an operation
against Kurds of Rojava, Turkey is ready to accept not to interfere with the
SAA units while it will clean up Idlib.
The possible
scenario is a joint operation, during which pro-Turkish groups would move from
the north and the border while Syrian-Iranian troops would start from the
positions alongside the de-escalation zone.
In any case,
Turkey is fully responsible for undermining the joint Memorandum. Moreover, the
current situation demonstrates Turkey’s negligence to guarantee the withdrawal
of heavy weapons and radical jihadist groups from Idlib. And while the Turkish
leader is turning a blind eye to what is going on in the province of Idlib
things are getting only worse.
