By Vesti Online edition, May 2018
Minister of Security of Bosnia and Herzegovina Dragan Mektić assessed that, in the event of an increased migrant's arrival in Bosnia, one of the real options would be to close the borders. If necessary, "other agencies and the BiH Armed Forces will also be involved". And Milorad Dodik warned that, in the event that BiH institutions fail, the RS will close its borders.
There are no official estimates of how many migrants have entered BiH, and Goran Kovačević, a professor at the Faculty of Criminology, Criminology and Security Studies at the University of Sarajevo, has stabilized the public by claiming that there are already between 35,000 and 50,000 in Bosnia, and that it is mostly about fugitive adherents Islamic countries.
In the interview for "News", Professor Kovačević says that he came to that figure by analyzing the situation in the country, but also in the Middle East for the past six months.
- The authorities deliberately hide the real numbers. I will remind that every day, over the last six months, it has been reported that between 50 and 60 migrants entered BiH. So, it's easy to add numbers and get the right information. At the same time, I claim that it is a fugitive member of the Islamic state, because there is no other explanation why people from Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan continue to flee when there are no more warfare there. It is in the interest of them to return and to restore their country, their homes. The fact that they are not thinking about it, suggests that this is not about "unfortunate refugees," but about fugitive supporters of the Islamic state, which is actually fleeing possible trials, and after the defeat, ID is now seeking refuge in some other area, and the space of Libya and the Balkans is for them ideal. Unfortunately, the BiH situation is extremely alarming, but the authorities do nothing to prevent a possible wave of terrorist attacks that is more than realistic in this situation - explains Kovacevic.
He adds that the main problem is the fact that everyone in BiH is currently facing the upcoming elections, so the institutions no longer deal with their responsibilities, but they are only interested in the results of the election.
- In the Balkans, it is very easy to provoke new conflicts and create new hot spots. This process will not be triggered by the Serbs, Croats, Bosniaks, but, as it has been before, someone from the side. I am afraid that certain intelligence services have saved such a scenario, and the refugee members of the Islamic State are ideal for such a job, "the professor emphasized.
Goran Kovačević warns that in the event of a greater wave of migrants in BiH, this country is not capable of facing such a problem.
- I doubt that there are accommodation capacities for 1,000 people, and nobody is interested in making refuge camps here. In the meantime, one should not forget that there is no one to help those people, because very few not only speak English, but less than one percent of Bosnian people know Arabic - Kovacevic explains.
Migrants go to Srpska!
Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik warns that the Serbian will do everything, including closing the borders, in order to protect its citizens, their way of life and property, as well as the RS institutions in the event of a migrant wave through BiH.
Dodik said this after an urgent session of the Republika Srpska government was held in Banja Luka on Sunday, which was an alarming announcement that a new wave of 50,000 to 120,000 migrants arrives from the Middle East. As they say, they are going from Greece through Albania and Gore to BiH, and at an emergency session, the RS Government concluded that there are no conditions for the care of migrants in the territory of Srpska.
Milorad Dodik said that "Serbian should not pay tribute to the mistakes of the West".
"Those who have caused this crisis should bear responsibility, and that is the Western Alliance, which has created problems in the Middle East, primarily in Syria," Dodik said, and called on the authorities in BiH to do the same thing as Hungary and Croatia, which is to close the borders.
Otherwise, if BiH fails to protect the interests of the RS, Dodik claims, then Srpska will "find a way to defend itself from the invasion."
- We want to protect our way of life. We will take all measures to protect our property, our rights, institutions and the RS. Let the West solve this issue, "Dodik said.
Interlocutors of "Vesti" claim that this is the only way to avoid a complete collapse in the functioning of not only BiH, but also Republika Srpska. Zoran Dragisic, a professor at the Faculty of Security in Belgrade, claims that the inflow of a large number of refugees in a short period of time would undoubtedly cause a complete collapse in the functioning of BiH.
"It does not even have to be found in the BiH territory of the expected 120,000 migrants, it is enough that it has been halved, this fact would undoubtedly, in the security and economic sense, jeopardize the functioning of BiH and lead to collapse of this country," Dragišić claims.
He explains this by the fact that Bosnia is in a financial and economic crisis, and that it has no capacity to receive so many people and provide them with a longer stay in Bosnia.
"I have no dilemma that none of these migrants will want to be permanently settled in either BiH or the RS, but with such a weakened economy and state institutions, I fear that it will be sufficient for a week for the state to collapse," Dragisic said.
Dragisic: Close the boundaries
Zoran Dragisic says that Serbian must seriously consider how to protect itself from the migrant waves, and that there are several ways to do it.
- There are a number of ways in which this can be done: from closing the borders to conditioning the significant assistance of the international community. Serbian has the capacity to do something like that - said Dragišić.
Croats stepped up surveillance
Due to the new influx of migrants to their feet, seven police directorates have been erected in Croatia, which extend to the border with Bosnia and Herzegovina, and an order has been issued to conduct considerably stronger state border surveillance, writes "Jutarnji List" and adds that additional units will be sent to these units . The leaflet says that for now there has not been a massive attempt to enter the migrants from BiH, but it is presumed that they are currently scrolling where it is easiest to cross the border.
- If they find a weak point, we will face hundreds of migrants in an attempt to break the border - claims the police spokesman for "Jutarnji List".
He assesses the decisions of the Government of RS, but also of President Dodik, as the only correct moves for the security of Srpska.
- The entry of a large number of migrants into the RS would significantly change and disrupt its religious and entity structure. In the meantime, this would be a direct blow to the budget and the economy of Srpska, which is difficult to withstand the wave without much help from the international community.
Just a "blow to the RS" for Dževad Galijasevic, a security expert, is crucial in assessing that a migrant crisis could be used to try to demolish Serbian and Dodik.
- The migrant wave is not a humanitarian but an important security issue. This wave was launched without objective causes and hence it is most precisely to conclude that it is geopolitically stimulated. They are geopolitically stimulated and the routes they are moving because there is no logical explanation why migrants would start to circumvent the nearest route to the European Union through Bulgaria and Romania, but have chosen the longest route to the West through Bosnia! The fact that this has already begun to happen tells me that this crisis has been consciously "redirected" to the territory of BiH in order to cause destabilization in this area. First of all I am referring to the direction of the crisis towards Republika Srpska before the forthcoming elections - concluded Dževad Galijasevic.
Cvijanovic: Engage the army
Prime Minister of the RS, Željka Cvijanović, claims that Srpska will not accept any decision or measure of the BiH Council of Ministers related to the territory of the Republic of Slovenia, which will be adopted without its consent. She said that one of the Government's conclusions was to ensure the increased presence of members of the RS Ministry of Interior in the border areas, but also that the BiH Border Police intensify its work on the borders, and that the BiH Presidency will enable enhanced border control with the engagement of BiH armed forces.
Tents in the center of Sarajevo
"Jutarnji list" says that there is already a chaos in Sarajevo and that about 100 migrants from Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, Palestine, Pakistan, Algeria, Morocco, Iraq, Turkey, Iran, Tunisia and other countries enter BiH every day. In Sarajevo, migrants in the city center have built an illegal tent camp because the local authorities do not know how to solve the problem of their accommodation.
Bosanska ruta
Neven Crvenkovic, UNHCR spokesperson for Southeast Europe, argues for N1 that migrations, which have affected BiH, have not yet taken on the form of a real crisis, but the situation can become critical unless appropriate solutions are made.
BiH Minister of Defense Dragan Mektić has recently indicated a much larger number of migrants claiming that "the situation is complicated" and that there are between 45,000 and 50,000 migrants between Greece and Bosnia.
Mektić explained that BiH's border with Croatia is about 1,000 kilometers long and that BiH has only 2,000 border police officers in total.
Additional confusion also creates extremely contradictory information about how many migrants are currently in BiH.
While Mijo Krešić, deputy minister of security, claims that around 5,000 are currently in BiH, while Marijan Baotić, assistant minister of asylum security states that there are around 3,500.
Radical Islam Monitor in Southeast Europe