For several months, Barack Obama has been trying to change US policy in the Middle East in order to eliminate the Islamic Emirate with the help of Syria. But he cannot do this, partly because he has been saying for years that President Assad must go, and secondly because his regional allies support the Islamic Emirate against Syria. However, things are slowly evolving so he should be able to do so soon. Thus, it appears that all States that supported the Islamic Emirate have ceased to do so, opening the way for a redistribution of the cards.
The world
awaits the conclusion of a comprehensive agreement between Washington
and Tehran -under the ridiculous pretext of
ending a military nuclear program that has not existed since the end of the war
waged by Iraq
(1980-1988) -. It would focus on the protection of Israel
in exchange for recognition of Iranian influence in the Middle East and Africa.
However, this should only
take effect after the Israeli elections of March 17, 2015. The supposed defeat
of Netanyahu would renew ties between Washington and Tel Aviv and facilitate
agreement with Tehran.In this context, the US elite are trying to agree on future policy, while the European allies of the United States are preparing to align with what will be the new US policy.
The search for consensus in the US
After two years of inconsistent policy, Washington is trying to develop a consensus on what should be its policy in the "extended Middle East".
1. On October 22, 2014, the Rand
Corporation, main think tank of the military-industrial lobby, dramatically
changed its position. After campaigning for the destruction of the Syrian Arab Republic, it said that now, the worst thing that can
happen to the United States
and Israel
is the fall of President Assad. [1] 2. On January 14, 2015, Leslie Gleb, the
president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, the club of the US elite,
warned against divisions of the Obama administration that threaten its
authority in the world. He advocated a kind of new "Baker-Hamilton
Commission" to review foreign policy top to bottom. [2] 3. On January 24, the New York Times
published an editorial supporting the new direction of the Rand Corporation and
calling for a complete policy change vis-à-vis Syria [3]. 4. On February 6, the Obama
administration published its new strategic doctrine. It would no longer
guarantee Israel’s security
by destroying Syria
but by creating a regional military alliance with zionist Muslim monarchies. At
most, the Islamic Emirate ("Daesh") could be used to prevent Syria from
holding its head high and replaying a regional political role. [4] 5. On February 10, the National Security
Network (NSN), a bipartisan think tank that tries to explain geopolitics in the
United States,
published a report on all the possible options regarding the Islamic Emirate. It
reviewed forty expert opinions and concluded the need to "contain and
destroy" the Islamic Emirate first by relying on Iraq, then Syria’s Bashar el Assad. NSN was
founded by Rand Beers, a former adviser to John Kerry, today Secretary of
Homeland Security. [5] 6. On February 11, the Obama
administration introduced to Congress a request to use military force against
the Islamic Emirate which relegated to oblivion the idea to overthrow President
Assad and destroy Syria [6]. 7. On 23 February, the new Secretary of
Defense Ashton Carter, brought together experts for a working dinner. He took
their advice for 5 hours without revealing his own point of view. Mr. Carter
intended to investigate for himself the work of the CSN. Among his guests were
not only former US ambassador to Syria, Robert S. Ford, and oldies think tanks,
but Clare Lockhart, known for her links with the world of finance; as well as
the president of the Columbia School of Journalism, Steve Coll, to assess
possible media reactions. [7]What has changed on the ground
During the last months, several factors have changed in the field. The "moderate Syrian
opposition" has completely disappeared. It has been absorbed by Daesh to
the point that the United States
cannot find fighters to train to build a "new Syria." The former ambassador,
Robert S. Ford (now an employee of the AIPAC think tank), who organized the
2011 protests and supported to the end the "moderate opposition" has
officially changed his position. He now thinks the only real opposition in Syria is
composed of jihadists that it would be extremely dangerous to arm
further. [8] In retrospect, it appears that the
terminology "moderate opposition" meant, not civilized fighters, but
the Syrians ready to betray their country in alliance with Israel. They in
fact made no mystery of this. [9] From the beginning, this
opposition was led de facto by members of al-Qaeda (as the Libyan Abdel Hakim
Belhaj, and the Iraqi Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi) and indulged in the worst
atrocities (including cannibalism) [10]. Now all these leaders are
responsible for the Islamic Emirate. On January 28, 2015 (Hezbollah response
to the assassination of several leaders in Syria), Israel stopped support for
jihadi organizations in Syria. For three and a half years, Tel Aviv supplied
them with weapons, nursed their wounded in military hospitals, supported their
operations with its aviation - all the while pretending to fight against arms
transfers to the Lebanese Hezbollah - and, ultimately, entrusting to them the
security of its border in the Golan to the detriment of the UN forces. The new king of Saudi Arabia, Salman,
dismissed Prince Bandar on January 30, 2015 and forbade any person to support
the Islamic Emirate. The Kingdom has thus ceased to play a role in the handling
of international terrorism; a role that had been entrusted to it by the CIA
after the Iranian Islamic revolution of 1979 and which was its mainstay for 35
years. Identically, Turkey also appears to have
stopped supporting the jihadists since February 6 and the resignation of the
head of MIT, its secret services, Hakan Fidan. Moreover, on the night of
February 21st to 22nd, the Turkish army illegally entered Syria, about thirty
kilometers, to remove the ashes of Suleiman Shah, the grandfather of the
founder of the Ottoman Empire, the reliquary it holds by virtue of the Treaty
of Ankara (1921). Despite an impressive display of force, the Turkish army did
not fight the Islamic Emirate which controls the area. The remains of Suleiman
Shah were not repatriated but deposited a little further, still in Syrian
territory. In this way, Turkey showed that it does not intend to take action
against the Islamic Emirate and retains its anti-Syrian ambitions.Possible US Options
Six options are being discussed in Washington: Destroy the Islamic Emirate and destroy
Syria; this is the point of view of the Raytheon firm, the world’s leading
producer of missiles, defended by its lobbyist Stephen Hadley, former national
security adviser to George W. Bush. The idea is to wage war for war without
regard to national interests. This maximalist view is not supported by any
political leader; it’s just formulated in the media to tip the scales in favor
of the widest possible war. Building on the Islamic Emirate to
destroy Syria, on the model of alliances concluded during the Vietnam War. This
is the view of the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, John
McCain, despite the memory of the fall of Saigon in 1975. It is extremely
expensive (20 to 30 billion dollars a year for very long years), risky and
unpopular. Immediately there would be a direct intervention of Iran and Russia
and the conflict would go global. No one, not even Mr. McCain, is able to
explain why the United States should engage in such an operation which would
benefit only the state of Israel. To weaken and destroy the Islamic
Emirate, coordinating US bombings and allied ground troops, including groups of
the "moderate Syrian opposition" (which no longer exists). Then use
these opposition groups (?) just to maintain pressure on Syria. This is the
current counter-terrorism position in the Obama administration. It is budgeted
at 4 to 9 billion per year. However, assuming that it created a "moderate
Syrian opposition" is not clear how the US Air Force could successfully
eliminate Daesh when it found itself unable to destroy the Taliban in
Afghanistan despite already 13 years of war, not to mention the examples of
Somalia or the current French stalemate in Mali. To weaken and destroy the Islamic
Emirate, coordinating US bombing with the only forces capable of defeating it
on the ground: the Syrian and Iraqi armies. This is the most interesting
position because it can be supported by both Iran
and Russia.
It would restore the US
global leadership position, as in "Desert Storm" against Iraq’s Saddam
Hussein and win without fail. However, this would require stopping the
demonization campaigns against Syria,
Iran and Russia. This
option is supported by the CSN and clearly corresponds to what the Obama
administration would like to do. Containment of the Islamic Emirate and
its progressive degradation to reduce it to an acceptable size. In this option,
the priority would be to protect Iraq,
the major fighting would be moved to Syria. The siege. The idea would no longer be to
fight the Islamic Emirate, but to isolate it to avoid its spread. People under
its control would then be left to their fate. It is the most economical
solution, but the least honourable, defended by Kenneth Pollack.Conclusion
These elements allow one to easily predict the future : in a few months, maybe even as early as late March, Washington and Tehran would reach an overall agreement. The United States will renew contact with Syria, closely followed by the European states, including France. We will discover that the el-Assad is neither a dictator nor a torturer. Therefore, the war against Syria will come to an end, while the main jihadist forces would be eliminated by a true international coalition. When this is all over, the surviving jihadists would be sent by the CIA to the Russian Caucasus and Chinese Xinjiang.[1] Alternative Futures for Syria. Regional Implications and Challenges for the United States, Andrew M. Liepman, Brian Nichiporuk, Jason Killmeyer, Rand Corporation, October 22, 2014.
[2] “This Is Obama’s Last Foreign Policy Chance”, Leslie Gelb, The Daily Beast, January 14, 2015.
[3] “Shifting Realities in Syria”, The Editorial Board, The New York Times Sunday Review, 24 janvier 2015.
[4] National Security Strategy, White House, February 6, 2015.
[5] Confronting the Islamic State. An Assessment of U.S. Strategic Options, Policy Report by J. Dana Stuster & Bill French, Foreword by Maj. Gen. Paul Eaton, National Security Network, February 10, 2015.
[6] “Joint resolution to authorize the limited use of the United States Armed Forces against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Proposal)”, by Barack Obama, Voltaire Network, 11 February 2015.
[7] “Ash Carter Seeks Fresh Eyes on Global Threats”, Dion Nissenbaum, Wall Street Journal, February 24, 2015.
[8] “Ex-Ambassador: CIA Wrong On Not Wanting To Arm Syrian Rebels”, Akbar Shahid Ahmed, The Huffington Post, October 22, 2014.
[9] « Leader Sees New Syria, Without Iran Ties », Jay Solomon et Nourmalas, Wall Street Journal, 2 décembre 2011.
[10] Abbou Sakkar, commandant d’une brigade de l’Armée syrienne libre mange le cœur et le foie d’un soldat syrien sur une vidéo qu’il diffuse en mai 2013. Sur les exactions de l’Armée syrienne libre dont la presse occidentale n’a jamais rendu compte, voir la conférence de la journaliste russe Anastasia Kopova.
Source: http://www.voltairenet.org/article186957.html
